Swayable polling for 2020 Presidential, senatorial and gubernatorial elections

Political Advocacy • October 28, 2020

James Slezak
Luke Hewitt
Valerie Coffman
Iri Hoxha

Swayable is conducting public opinion polling on the U.S. 2020 general elections as part of its ongoing research and data program. This research is conducted independently and not paid for by any client.

US President

National
biden 51.4%
trump 45.7%
jorgensen 2.4%
hawkins 0.5%
N = 11,714 MOE = 1.2
Alabama
trump 55.8%
biden 37.2%
jorgensen 7.0%
N = 266 MOE = 7.8
Arizona
biden 52.4%
trump 43.8%
jorgensen 3.8%
N = 304 MOE = 7.2
California
biden 62.0%
trump 35.3%
jorgensen 1.7%
hawkins 1.0%
N = 635 MOE = 5.2
Florida
trump 50.6%
biden 46.4%
jorgensen 2.0%
hawkins 1.0%
N = 605 MOE = 5.4
Georgia
biden 50.5%
trump 48.1%
jorgensen 1.4%
N = 373 MOE = 6.9
Illinois
biden 54.2%
trump 43.1%
jorgensen 2.1%
hawkins 0.5%
N = 424 MOE = 6.2
Indiana
trump 52.9%
biden 42.3%
jorgensen 4.7%
N = 301 MOE = 7.4
Michigan
biden 58.6%
trump 39.6%
jorgensen 1.7%
hawkins 0.1%
N = 394 MOE = 6.7
North Carolina
biden 50.2%
trump 47.5%
jorgensen 1.8%
hawkins 0.4%
N = 396 MOE = 6.8
New Jersey
biden 61.8%
trump 37.7%
hawkins 0.3%
jorgensen 0.2%
N = 386 MOE = 6.5
New York
biden 65.4%
trump 32.8%
hawkins 1.0%
jorgensen 0.8%
N = 495 MOE = 5.8
Ohio
trump 55.3%
biden 43.6%
jorgensen 0.9%
hawkins 0.2%
N = 440 MOE = 6.3
Pennsylvania
biden 51.9%
trump 46.1%
jorgensen 2.0%
N = 491 MOE = 6.0
Texas
trump 48.6%
biden 47.5%
jorgensen 3.0%
hawkins 0.8%
N = 552 MOE = 5.7
Virginia
biden 55.2%
trump 44.3%
jorgensen 0.5%
N = 351 MOE = 7.2
Wisconsin
biden 53.7%
trump 44.9%
jorgensen 1.4%
N = 313 MOE = 7.2

US Senate

Texas
John Cornyn (R) 52.4%
M.J. Hegar (D) 47.6%
N = 492 MOE = 6.0
Georgia
David Perdue (R) 49.4%
Jon Ossoff (D) 47.8%
Shane Hazel (L) 2.8%
N = 342 MOE = 7.2
Michigan
Gary Peters (D) 58.4%
John James (R) 41.6%
N = 365 MOE = 6.9
North Carolina
Thom Tillis (R) 50.3%
Cal Cunningham (D) 49.7%
N = 363 MOE = 7.1
New Jersey
Cory Booker (D) 61.0%
Rikin Mehta (R) 39.0%
N = 363 MOE = 6.7
Virginia
Mark Warner (D) 59.7%
Daniel Gade (R) 40.3%
N = 332 MOE = 7.3
Arizona
Mark Kelly (D) 55.8%
Martha McSally (R) 44.2%
N = 286 MOE = 7.4
Alabama
Tommy Tuberville (R) 54.4%
Doug Jones (D) 45.6%
N = 232 MOE = 8.7

US Gubernatorial

North Carolina
Roy Cooper (D) 52.8%
Dan Forest (R) 43.8%
Steven DiFiore (L) 2.2%
Al Pisano 1.2%
N = 386 MOE = 6.9

Methodology

All polls were conducted between October 23, 2020 and October 26th, 2020. Questions were asked of self-identified voters eligible to participate in the 2020 U.S. general election, using Swayable’s proprietary online platform.

The sample frame is U.S. smartphone and personal computer users in all 50 states with active internet connections who are users of popular mobile and web apps that make up Swayable’s network of respondent partners. Respondents are solicited from partner apps with non-monetary reward offers for their participation. Respondents were recruited with an approximately even ratio of men and women imposed via separate quotas for each. This is a “non-probability sample” (using the conventional terminology of public opinion research, although the team notes that this concept is not an especially useful one given that random sampling of the voting population is not possible via any methodology). To correct for over/under-sampling, all samples are post-stratified to the general U.S. population using cross-tabulations accounting for factors including age, ethnicity, gender, educational attainment and geography, based on the latest available data from the U.S. Census Bureau and Swayable’s proprietary population modeling. Further reweighting is applied to account for modeled estimates of voter turnout likelihood. Margins of error quoted are based on response distribution statistics and sample sizes.

Candidate choice was obtained from relevant respondents by asking “Which candidate for U.S. President are you most likely to vote for”or “Which candidate for U.S. President did you vote for?” in the case of those who had already voted.

This research was conducted and self-funded by Swayable and was not requested by any client or campaign.

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