Swayable polling for 2020 senatorial and gubernatorial elections (larger states)

Political Advocacy • November 2, 2020

James Slezak
Luke Hewitt
Valerie Coffman
Iri Hoxha

Swayable is conducting public opinion polling on the U.S. 2020 general elections as part of its ongoing research and data program. This research is conducted independently and not paid for by any client.

US President

Alabama
trump 55.0%
biden 37.8%
jorgensen 7.2%
N = 330 MOE = 7.9
Arizona
biden 50.6%
trump 45.7%
jorgensen 3.7%
N = 360 MOE = 7.1
Florida
biden 53.0%
trump 45.5%
jorgensen 0.8%
hawkins 0.8%
N = 1,261 MOE = 3.7
Georgia
biden 53.6%
trump 44.3%
jorgensen 2.0%
N = 438 MOE = 6.2
Illinois
biden 55.1%
trump 43.6%
jorgensen 0.9%
hawkins 0.3%
N = 485 MOE = 6.0
Indiana
trump 55.2%
biden 43.0%
jorgensen 1.7%
N = 264 MOE = 7.8
Michigan
biden 53.6%
trump 44.9%
jorgensen 1.3%
hawkins 0.1%
N = 413 MOE = 6.5
North Carolina
biden 52.3%
trump 46.4%
jorgensen 1.0%
hawkins 0.3%
N = 690 MOE = 5.3
New Jersey
biden 58.9%
trump 40.0%
jorgensen 0.8%
hawkins 0.3%
N = 324 MOE = 7.2
Ohio
trump 52.3%
biden 47.1%
jorgensen 0.5%
hawkins 0.2%
N = 516 MOE = 5.8
Pennsylvania
biden 49.9%
trump 48.4%
jorgensen 1.7%
N = 1,107 MOE = 3.9
Texas
trump 51.2%
biden 47.2%
jorgensen 1.2%
hawkins 0.4%
N = 1,151 MOE = 3.9
Virginia
biden 56.3%
trump 41.3%
jorgensen 2.5%
N = 467 MOE = 6.4
Wisconsin
biden 54.6%
trump 44.9%
jorgensen 0.6%
N = 253 MOE = 8.2

US Senate

Texas
John Cornyn (R) 56.5%
M.J. Hegar (D) 43.5%
N = 1,042 MOE = 4.0
Georgia
David Perdue (R) 49.2%
Jon Ossoff (D) 47.9%
Shane Hazel (L) 2.9%
N = 407 MOE = 6.4
Michigan
Gary Peters (D) 53.6%
John James (R) 46.4%
N = 393 MOE = 6.6
North Carolina
Cal Cunningham (D) 53.2%
Thom Tillis (R) 46.8%
N = 619 MOE = 5.6
Arizona
Mark Kelly (D) 55.0%
Martha McSally (R) 45.0%
N = 333 MOE = 7.2
Alabama
Tommy Tuberville (R) 57.6%
Doug Jones (D) 42.3%
N = 294 MOE = 8.5
Virginia
Mark Warner (D) 60.7%
Daniel Gade (R) 39.3%
N = 283 MOE = 8.3

US Gubernatorial

North Carolina
Roy Cooper (D) 54.7%
Dan Forest (R) 42.2%
Steven DiFiore (L) 23.4%
Al Pisano 0.1%
N = 655 MOE = 5.5

Methodology

All polls were conducted between October 27, 2020 and November 1, 2020, except for FL, NC, PA and TX which continued until November 2, 2020. Questions were asked of self-identified voters eligible to participate in the 2020 U.S. general election, using Swayable’s proprietary online platform.

The sample frame is U.S. smartphone and personal computer users in all 50 states with active internet connections who are users of popular mobile and web apps that make up Swayable’s network of respondent partners. Respondents are solicited from partner apps with non-monetary reward offers for their participation. This is a “non-probability sample” (using the conventional terminology of public opinion research, although the team notes that this concept is not an especially useful one given that random sampling of the voting population is not possible via any methodology). In order to ensure that statistics are representative of the voting population, a combination of post-stratification weighting and stochastic quotas are applied, accounting for factors including age, ethnicity, gender, educational attainment, geography and turnout likelihood, based on the latest available data from the U.S. Census Bureau and Swayable’s proprietary population modeling. Margins of error quoted are calculated based on actual response distributions.

Candidate choice was obtained from relevant respondents by asking “Which candidate for U.S. President are you most likely to vote for”or “Which candidate for U.S. President did you vote for?” in the case of those who had already voted.

This research was conducted and self-funded by Swayable and was not requested by any client or campaign.