Swayable national polling for 2020 Presidential elections.

Political Advocacy • November 2, 2020

James Slezak
Luke Hewitt
Valerie Coffman
Iri Hoxha

Swayable is conducting public opinion polling on the U.S. 2020 general elections as part of its ongoing research and data program. This research is conducted independently and not paid for by any client.

National polls

Oct 27 - Oct 28
biden 52.8%
trump 45.6%
jorgensen 1.1%
hawkins 0.5%
N = 2,386 MOE = 2.9
Oct 29 - Oct 31
biden 51.9%
trump 46.3%
jorgensen 1.5%
hawkins 0.3%
N = 3,115 MOE = 2.4
Nov 1
biden 51.8%
trump 46.1%
jorgensen 1.7%
hawkins 0.4%
N = 5,174 MOE = 1.7

Methodology

Questions were asked of self-identified voters eligible to participate in the 2020 U.S. general election, using Swayable’s proprietary online platform.

The sample frame is U.S. smartphone and personal computer users in all 50 states with active internet connections who are users of popular mobile and web apps that make up Swayable’s network of respondent partners. Respondents are solicited from partner apps with non-monetary reward offers for their participation. Respondents were recruited with an approximately even ratio of men and women imposed via separate quotas for each. This is a “non-probability sample” (using the conventional terminology of public opinion research, although the team notes that this concept is not an especially useful one given that random sampling of the voting population is not possible via any methodology). To correct for over/under-sampling, all samples are post-stratified to the general U.S. population using cross-tabulations accounting for factors including age, ethnicity, gender, educational attainment and geography, based on the latest available data from the U.S. Census Bureau and Swayable’s proprietary population modeling. Further reweighting is applied to account for modeled estimates of voter turnout likelihood. Margins of error quoted are based on response distribution statistics and sample sizes.

Candidate choice was obtained from relevant respondents by asking “Which candidate for U.S. President are you most likely to vote for”or “Which candidate for U.S. President did you vote for?” in the case of those who had already voted.

This research was conducted and self-funded by Swayable and was not requested by any client or campaign.

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