Swayable polling for 2020 senatorial and gubernatorial elections (smaller states)

Political Advocacy • November 2, 2020

James Slezak
Luke Hewitt
Valerie Coffman
Iri Hoxha

Swayable is conducting public opinion polling on the U.S. 2020 general elections as part of its ongoing research and data program. This research is conducted independently and not paid for by any client.

US President

Colorado
biden 55.4%
trump 40.7%
jorgensen 2.6%
hawkins 1.3%
N = 455 MOE = 6.0
Connecticut
biden 64.1%
trump 33.7%
jorgensen 1.7%
hawkins 0.5%
N = 367 MOE = 6.2
Kentucky
trump 55.0%
biden 41.5%
jorgensen 3.5%
N = 383 MOE = 7.4
Louisiana
trump 56.6%
biden 39.1%
jorgensen 4.2%
N = 378 MOE = 6.7
Maryland
biden 67.0%
trump 31.1%
jorgensen 1.5%
hawkins 0.4%
N = 503 MOE = 5.7
Minnesota
biden 52.7%
trump 43.4%
jorgensen 3.5%
hawkins 0.4%
N = 466 MOE = 5.9
Missouri
trump 54.6%
biden 43.4%
jorgensen 1.8%
hawkins 0.2%
N = 487 MOE = 6.6
Oregon
biden 60.4%
trump 37.2%
jorgensen 1.2%
hawkins 1.2%
N = 324 MOE = 7.3
South Carolina
trump 49.8%
biden 48.9%
jorgensen 1.0%
hawkins 0.4%
N = 426 MOE = 7.4
Tennessee
trump 57.6%
biden 40.9%
jorgensen 1.1%
hawkins 0.3%
N = 485 MOE = 5.9
Washington
biden 58.9%
trump 38.6%
jorgensen 2.0%
hawkins 0.5%
N = 489 MOE = 6.0

US Senate

Tennessee
Bill Hagerty (R) 60.7%
Marquita Bradshaw (D) 39.3%
N = 431 MOE = 6.2
Minnesota
Tina Smith (D) 54.5%
Jason Lewis (R) 45.5%
N = 430 MOE = 6.1
Colorado
John W. Hickenlooper (D) 56.9%
Cory Gardner (R) 43.1%
N = 443 MOE = 6.0
South Carolina
Jaime Harrison (D) 51.9%
Lindsey Graham (R) 46.0%
Bill Bledsoe 2.2%
N = 416 MOE = 7.5
Kentucky
Mitch McConnell (R) 49.1%
Amy McGrath (D) 46.3%
Brad Barron (L) 4.6%
N = 365 MOE = 7.9

US Gubernatorial

Washington
Jay Inslee (D) 59.1%
Loren Culp (R) 40.9%
N = 474 MOE = 6.0

Methodology

All polls were conducted between October 23, 2020 and November 1, 2020. Questions were asked of self-identified voters eligible to participate in the 2020 U.S. general election, using Swayable’s proprietary online platform.

The sample frame is U.S. smartphone and personal computer users in all 50 states with active internet connections who are users of popular mobile and web apps that make up Swayable’s network of respondent partners. Respondents are solicited from partner apps with non-monetary reward offers for their participation. This is a “non-probability sample” (using the conventional terminology of public opinion research, although the team notes that this concept is not an especially useful one given that random sampling of the voting population is not possible via any methodology). In order to ensure that statistics are representative of the voting population, a combination of post-stratification weighting and stochastic quotas are applied, accounting for factors including age, ethnicity, gender, educational attainment, geography and turnout likelihood, based on the latest available data from the U.S. Census Bureau and Swayable’s proprietary population modeling. Margins of error quoted are calculated based on actual response distributions.

Candidate choice was obtained from relevant respondents by asking “Which candidate for U.S. President are you most likely to vote for”or “Which candidate for U.S. President did you vote for?” in the case of those who had already voted.

This research was conducted and self-funded by Swayable and was not requested by any client or campaign.